If you’ve been watching the chatter on X lately, you’ve seen it: on one side, business owners saying everything is fine; on the other, those saying things “feel off.” Some strong regions are still booked out. Others are asking whether this is the calm before a storm.

Yes—the national economy still shows growth. But that’s part of the problem. The big “macro” numbers are always behind. What your clients are seeing today often won’t hit the data print for months.

And now we’ve got a new wrinkle: the federal government has been shut down since October 1, 2025. (entrepreneur.com) That means federal contracts are stalled, lending programs are frozen, consumer spending is losing momentum and thousands of federal workers and contractors are either furloughed or working without pay. (sba.gov) For many small and midsize businesses—especially those with federal exposure or dependent on consumer demand—this isn’t just a slowing economy, it’s an added risk.

Similarly, newer data from the QuickBooks Small Business Index shows small-business revenue across U.S. firms fell about 0.78% in September. (forbes.com) The drop is modest—but what matters is the direction and the fact that some regions are already lagging.

The accountant’s role when things aren't stable

When the engine starts to cough, your role changes. You step from the back-office into the cockpit. You're the person who helps your business client answer: What’s actually happening? What are we going to do about it?

Here’s how you can lean in:

Spot the signals early

‍You have access to data that national reports don’t yet: customer invoicing, payment-processor deposits, days in receivables, job backlog size, new business leads. When you see these slipping, you’re the first to notice. Alert your client.

Accountants see the slowdown before the headlines do. Your clients need that perspective right now.

Interpret and advise

‍Once you see a signal, you help your client ask the right questions:

• Are new jobs or sales slowing?
  
• Has payment lag increased?
  
• Are material or labour costs rising or margins shrinking?
  
• Do they depend on federal contracts or grants that might be delayed because of the shutdown?

This is your advisory moment.

Model what happens next

With the economy branching into multiple possible paths (flat, slow, drop), you help your client map these paths:

• If revenue falls by 10% in next quarter, what does that mean for cash-flow, payroll, debt?
  
• If costs rise by 5% while sales stay flat, what changes?
  
• If a major contract gets delayed by 30 days (thanks to the shutdown or regional hiring freeze), how will that affect the business?

Helping clients move from “hope this blows over” to “let’s prepare for this if it doesn’t” is huge.

Strengthen the financial resilience

‍Businesses that survive downturns are often the ones prepared for them. You can help clients:

• Review their cash reserves and contingency plans.
  
• Decide which costs are truly fixed and which are variable.
  
• Tighten credit-terms with customers and suppliers.
  
• Consider short-term adjustments (e.g., reducing variable labour, re-negotiating leases) before the pressure hits.
  
• If they depend on federal funding or contracts, map the risk of delay, stoppage or cash-flow lag.
  

Communicate proactively

‍Don’t wait for month-end or the annual meeting. Reach out now. Frame the conversation:

“I’m seeing small-business revenue trending down 0.8% nationally. I’m seeing signs of backlog shortening in our region. And with the government shutdown we may get a double bump here. Let’s review where your business stands right now and how we might act if things soften further.”

That message positions you as the strategic partner your client needs.

Why it matters now

This moment is different. A slowdown alone is manageable. A slowdown plus a major external disruption (like the government shutdown) is stressful. Because small and midsize businesses often have thinner cushions, longer payment cycles, tighter margins—they don’t always weather jolts well.

This is when accountants prove their real value — not by reporting what happened, but by guiding what happens next.

Your clients aren’t waiting on the national data to confirm their hunches. They’re seeing bookings flatten, hearing their customers say “we’ll wait” and feeling their margins tighten. They might not call you yet. But they’ll remember who called them.

When you step in early, when you help them see the risks, plan for the downside, and act—not just react—you shift your value dramatically. You become a trusted advisor when it matters most.

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